Debris and GLOFs

Guest post: How debris cover is altering glaciers in the Everest region

by Dr David Rounce, University of Alaska Fairbanks

If you’ve ever traveled to Everest Base Camp or seen photos of glaciers in the Everest region, you’ll notice that the lower regions of these glaciers don’t look like your typical clean ice glacier. Instead, they are covered with debris. In fact, Everest Base Camp (Figure 1), located at 5,360 metres above sea level, is set up each year on top of the debris-covered portion of the Khumbu Glacier. 

Figure 1. David Rounce taking a quick break from his fieldwork in 2014 to visit Everest Base Camp in the Nepal Himalaya.

Figure 1. David Rounce taking a quick break from his fieldwork in 2014 to visit Everest Base Camp in the Nepal Himalaya.

The glaciers in this region are primarily avalanche-fed debris-covered glaciers meaning that avalanches and rockfalls from the headwalls surrounding the upper portion of the glacier cause debris to be deposited on the glacier surface. This debris is then rafted down-glacier as the glacier flows over time causing the debris to accumulate at the terminus of the glacier. This explains why the debris is the thickest at the end of the glacier and thinner further up glacier. 

This debris cover fundamentally alters how these glaciers will respond to climate change. A thick layer of debris (greater than a couple centimeters) will insulate the underlying ice and reduce glacier melt, while a thin layer of debris (less than a few centimeters) will absorb more radiation and can actually increase the melt. While this relationship between debris thickness and glacier melt is well known, quantifying the debris thickness over an entire glacier has remained a challenge – until now. 

Our recent study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface has developed a new method for estimating the debris thickness for three glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal. Our method uses pairs of high-resolution digital elevation models to estimate how much the glacier is melting, and then uses the well-known relationship between debris thickness and glacier melt to estimate the debris thickness. We found that on the tongues of Khumbu Glacier and Ngozumpa Glacier, one of the largest debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya, the debris thickness was around two metres thick! These estimates agreed quite well with previous measurements and were the first time that debris thickness estimates had been validated on the glacier scale. 

Figure 2. The debris on this portion of Imja-Lhotse Shar Glacier commonly exceeded one metre.  Here, an automatic weather station is being installed during a field expedition in April 2017 to better understand debris-covered glacier melt (credi…

Figure 2. The debris on this portion of Imja-Lhotse Shar Glacier commonly exceeded one metre.  Here, an automatic weather station is being installed during a field expedition in April 2017 to better understand debris-covered glacier melt (credit: Chilton Tippin).

The thick debris on these glaciers (Figure 2) has important implications for how these glaciers will respond to climate change. Specifically, the debris thickness tends to be the thickest at the bottom of the glacier and become thinner further up glacier. 

How debris cover affects pond formation

Since the glacier melts more beneath thin debris compared to thick debris, the glaciers can actually melt more up glacier than it does at the bottom of the glacier, which causes the slope of the glacier to flatten. These gentler slopes enable supraglacial ponds to develop, which has occurred on both Ngozumpa Glacier and Khumbu Glacier over the last couple of decades. 

The supraglacial ponds on Khumbu Glacier (Figure 3) have already begun to impact one of the popular trekking routes, Kongma La Pass trail, with researchers from the University of Leeds projecting that this trail across the Khumbu Glacier will likely be impassable by 2020.

Figure 3. Supraglacial pond and ice cliff on Khumbu Glacier (credit: Owen King).

Figure 3. Supraglacial pond and ice cliff on Khumbu Glacier (credit: Owen King).

These supraglacial ponds also signal that the glaciers are storing more water on their surface and in their subsurface via englacial conduits as well. This stored water has the potential to be suddenly released causing a glacier outburst flood*. This happened at Lhotse Glacier, another glacier located in the Everest region, in June 2016, which was caught on video by Elizabeth Byers. 

Glacier outburst flood from Lhotse Glacier in June 2016 was captured on video by Elizabeth Byers.

While it is difficult to determine when and how frequently these outburst floods occur, the development of these supraglacial ponds is certainly important to monitor, they may eventually coalesce and develop into a large glacial lake. 

These glacial lakes can store a tremendous amount of water and can become a hazard for downstream communities. Imja Lake is an excellent example of a debris-covered glacier that developed from a few small ponds in the 1950s into one of the largest glacial lakes in Nepal today (Figure 4). In 2016, the outlet of Imja Lake was lowered by three metres to reduce the hazard associated with a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF).

Figure 4. Repeat photographs of Imja Lake from 1956 when the lake did not exist (credit: Fritz Müller) to 2007 where the lake has become one of the fastest growing lakes in Nepal (credit: Alton Byers).

Figure 4. Repeat photographs of Imja Lake from 1956 when the lake did not exist (credit: Fritz Müller) to 2007 where the lake has become one of the fastest growing lakes in Nepal (credit: Alton Byers).

A recent study in Nature estimated that roughly 18% of the total volume of ice in High Mountain Asia is beneath debris-covered glaciers. Another study in the Everest region estimated the debris-covered area is as high as 32% and is increasing as these glaciers continue to melt. Therefore, if we want to truly understand how these debris-covered glaciers and their potential hazards may evolve in the future, we first need to understand how the debris thickness varies on these glaciers. Our study is hopefully a good start.

Dr. David Rounce can be contacted via: https://davidrounce.weebly.com/contact.html

 

*Glacier Outburst Floods are slightly different to the more famous Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). 

How Climate Change is impacting global water resources

So much of our project work is about water. We are funding the construction of a new water supply system in Deurali, enabling farmers to grow crops that don't require intensive watering and providing the basic materials to build water harvesting ponds. In the Himalaya's this is the biggest impact Climate Change is having, it is effecting the amount of rain and snow fall and changing the amount of water available from glacier and snow melt. 

NASA scientists have taken a global look of the impacts climate change is having on water and have produced an annotated map to show the significant changes that are happening around the world. In Nepal, it is glacier melt, in other locations groundwater depletion is the most pressing concern, or surface water drying. 

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The full report by Rodell et al, can be read at Nature.com. A useful short summary by Eric Holthaus, is available on Grist.   

Quick Question: can we still email you?

You will probably have heard about GDPR and the changes to the data protection laws. They are good changes and we welcome them. The key impact it is having on The Glacier Trust is that we need to ask you to consent to receiving emails about our work and how you can help.

We have emailed everyone asking them to fill out a very short form to confirm they are happy to continue receiving email from us. We are very encouraged by how many people have done this, more than 30% of you, which is probably a good deal more than the sector average. 

If you've not yet given us your consent and you would still like to hear from us, please fill out this form as soon as possibleAnyone who is not signed up by the end of next week will be permanently deleted from our email list. 

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We send approximately six emails per year. We aim to keep you up to date with all our project work and how you can support us. We also share news and opinion from the world of climate change adaptation. 

Your support is so important to us and to all the families we work with in Nepal. It will only take 30 seconds to confirm you still want to hear from us.

 

Please let people in Nepal know that their stories matter. 

Thank you.

Around the Grounds

Sponsored walk raises over £650 for The Glacier Trust's work in Nepal

Yesterday on the last day of the Premier League season, two TGT supporters took on and completed an incredible 27.4 mile sponsored walk across London. The idea, dreamed up by Glyn Phillips (younger brother of TGT Co-Director, Morgan) was to visit as many Premier League grounds as possible in one day, on foot! 

Glyn is a Spurs fan, so it was quickly decided that the walk should start at Wembley stadium (Spurs' temporary home) and end at White Hart Lane, (Spurs' true home!) Glyn was joined by his good friend Adam Lewitt (a Man Utd fan) for the walk which also took in Stamford Bridge, the Emirates Stadium and the London Stadium.  

They completed the walk in just under 11 hours. and have so far raised an incredible £655 for our Climate Change Adaptation work in Nepal. There is still time to sponsor them. Please do, 100% of the money raised will go to our project work. 

Their sense of humour stayed intact right to the last, we caught up with Adam just after the finish line:

I'm exhausted. It was a walk of two halves, we covered a lot ground and really had to dig deep. Late on, over there on Tottenham Marshes, I didn't think we were going to make it, Glyn seemed to want to cover every blade of grass, it was incredible to see him play on through the pain barrier like that. He deserves a lot of credit. 

Glyn summed up the performance:

I'm just delighted we managed to hold our nerve and get over the line. Adam was an absolute rock out there, he just kept driving us on, I don't know how he does it. What can I say? It is so great to finish here in front of all our supporters. Thanks to everyone who has been behind us on this incredible journey.  
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If you would like to take on a sponsored challenge on behalf of The Glacier Trust, please visit our bespoke challenges page and get in touch. 

Climate Migration

The World Bank have published a 256 page report on the projected impacts climate change will have on migration around the world.

Migration patterns in south Asia have been dominated by movements from rural to urban areas as families search for economic security. The World Bank are predicting a partial reversal of this over the coming decades.

As climate change takes hold, low lying and coastal areas will become too hot and in many cases too flooded to be livable. The projected impacts of this on migration vary. The report looks at three different scenarios, all three predict significant flows of people within and between countries in South Asia. 

Source: World Bank (2018) Groundswell - Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, Available online via: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/03/19/climate-change-could-force-over-140-million-to-migrate-within-countries-by-20…

Source: World Bank (2018) Groundswell - Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, Available online via: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/03/19/climate-change-could-force-over-140-million-to-migrate-within-countries-by-2050-world-bank-report 


Climate change is not likely to be the main factor driving migration, economics will continue to play a major role. But, climate will become more important and more influential over time. How important depends on how quickly and how high temperatures rise. 

The Glacier Trust works with communities in remote mountainous regions of Nepal, we enable climate change adaptation through agriculture, water supply and education programmes. The Groundswell report predicts that upland regions will see in-migration as people look to inhabit slightly cooler climes. 

The southern Indian highlands, especially between Bangalore and Chennai will be climate in-migration hotspots. Parts of Nepal, as well as northwestern India, also see climate in-migration. (World Bank, 2018, p. 121). 

We have to remember of course that the highland regions are already facing a lot of challenges due to climate change and these are likely to intensify. Indeed, the trend at the moment in the Himalayas is still out-migration as farming is getting harder and more unpredictable. People go to cities in search of work and a stable income. Our projects are changing this, farmers are staying and in some cases returning as they recognise the opportunities that now exist thanks to the project work we are enabling.

If the mountain regions become a refuge for climate migrants, we need to do all we can to ensure they are livable with thriving agricultural economies. We are already demonstrating the possibilities and hope to continue to innovate to show the way. 


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